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2019-20 Mediterranean medicane season (TG)
The 2019-20 Mediterranean medicane season was a slightly above average season that lasted from July 1, 2019 until June 30, 2020, with the peak months occurring between September and February. The 2019-20 season was very deadly and destructive, causing a total of at least $6 billion in damages. Most of the damage was caused by the strongest storm of the season, Medicane Xylona, which became the most intense medicane ever recorded, beating out Medicane Cornelia's previous record of 970 millibars. Xylona caused at least 110 fatalities, and also at least $4.05 billion in damages, becoming the second-costliest medicane on record, just behind Medicane Cleopatra. The season featured a few other destructive and/or deadly storms, including Medicane Cassilda, which brought a storm surge of at least 6 feet at its landfall in the Greek Island of Crete. Cassilda caused at least 15 fatalities and $600 million (2019 USD) in damages. One of the worst disasters of the season, however, was Medistorm Falchion, which caused extreme flooding in the Balearic Islands and France, which ended up resulting in its retirement. An odd storm that occurred in the season was Medicane Helios, which lasted several days as it looped around the Western Mediterranean, eventually dissipating over Libya. During the season, almost all of the stronger systems formed in the western portion of the basin, which was contrast to the previous 2 seasons, which were more central biased. Overall, the season was one of the most intense and destructive seasons on record. Seasonal forecasts Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, medicanes, and major medicanes (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Mediterranean Cyclone Prediction Centre (MCPC), Mediterranean Tropical Cyclone Center (MTCC), the Free University of Berlin (FUB) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Agency (UKMO). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of medistorms, severe medistorms, medicanes, and major medicanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing El Niño event that had formed in late 2018. On average, a Mediterranean medicane season between 2000 and 2016 contained 14 named storms, 4 medicanes, and 1 major medicane, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 8 and 15 units. Pre-season outlooks The first prediction for the 2019-20 season was issued by the Mediterranean Cyclone Prediction Center (MCPC) on March 2, 2019, calling for an above average season due to the El Niño event that was taking place, but the forecast noted that the conditions would likely flip toward La Nina eventually, causing the declining of late-season activity. A couple months later, in May, The Free University of Berlin issued its first prediction, calling for an average season with a possible transition to neutral conditions in the middle of the season. The MCPC revised their prediction to 16 storms, up from their original 15 storms, stating that the season could be enhanced more by the ENSO neutral conditions that were expected to develop in the season. On May 27, the Mediterranean Tropical Cyclone Center issued their first prediction, calling for a well-below average season. Surprisingly, they gave no reason why that the season could be inactive, but they did claim that there would be 9-11 named storms with a below average amount of medicanes and no major medicanes. After conditions began to transition into ENSO Neutral, some forecasting agencies took to revise their predictions yet again in June, all calling for an above average season with at least 14-18 storms. The agencies that revised their predictions in early June brought up their medicane total prediction and major medicane total prediction, along with a new prediction from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), which called for an active season as well. The final pre-season prediction came from a revision of the UKMO forecast on June 30, which called for an average season with 13 named storms. Mid-season outlooks During the mid-season, at least 3 predictions were made or revised, which included the MCPC, FUB, and UKMO. The revisions all brought the season back down to average, which ended up being mostly correct in the actual outcome of the season. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:700 height:250 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/08/2019 till:01/07/2020 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/08/2019 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:MS value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Medistorm id:SMS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Severe_Medistorm id:MC value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Medicane id:MMC value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Major_Medicane id:CMC value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Catastrophic_Medicane Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:21/08/2019 till:23/08/2019 color:SMS text:Vito from:11/09/2019 till:15/09/2019 color:CMC text:Xylona from:22/09/2019 till:25/09/2019 color:MC text:Yosef from:29/09/2019 till:01/10/2019 color:MS text:Zenia from:03/10/2019 till:06/10/2019 color:MS text:Athena from:27/10/2019 till:30/10/2019 color:SMS text:Benjamin from:06/11/2019 till:11/11/2019 color:MC text:Cassilda barset:break from:24/12/2019 till:26/12/2019 color:MS text:David from:16/01/2020 till:17/01/2020 color:MS text:Elaina from:24/01/2020 till:28/01/2020 color:SMS text:Falchion from:31/01/2020 till:03/02/2020 color:MC text:Gloria from:13/02/2020 till:20/02/2020 color:MC text:Helios from:27/02/2020 till:29/02/2020 color:SMS text:Isabella from:26/03/2020 till:28/03/2020 color:MS text:Jon from:01/06/2020 till:04/06/2020 color:MS text:Karissa bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/08/2019 till:01/09/2019 text:August from:01/09/2019 till:01/10/2019 text:September from:01/10/2019 till:01/11/2019 text:October from:01/11/2019 till:01/12/2019 text:November from:01/12/2019 till:01/01/2020 text:December from:01/01/2020 till:01/02/2020 text:January from:01/02/2020 till:01/03/2020 text:February from:01/03/2020 till:01/04/2020 text:March from:01/04/2020 till:01/05/2020 text:April from:01/05/2020 till:01/06/2020 text:May from:01/06/2020 till:01/07/2020 text:June The season started out relatively quiet, with no activity for almost 2 months, when the first storm of the season formed on August 21. On August 21, 2019, Medistorm Vito formed just east of Sardinia, moving generally northeast. Vito strengthened into a severe medistorm with winds of 45 mph before making its first landfall in Italy, dissipating over the Adriatic Sea on early August 23. The second storm of the season ended up being one of the most historic cyclones ever recorded in the basin. On September 11, 2019, Medistorm Xylona formed over the Balearic Islands. Due to unprecedented extremely conducive conditions, Xylona rapidly intensified into a major medicane with 80 mph winds, before making its first devastating landfall in Sardinia, which resulted in dozens of fatalities due to flooding and mudslides. After moving over Sardinia, it became the most intense medicane on record, weakening some before its landfall in Italy. Xylona dissipated over Croatia the day after. During September, 2 other systems formed. Those of which were Yosef and Zenia, the former of which became the second medicane of the season in the Eastern Mediterranean, where it made landfall in Turkey as a medistorm. Zenia was a weak medistorm that stayed out to sea in the Eastern Mediterranean. During October, only two systems formed, and those of which were Athena and Benjamin. Both were rather weak and caused minor damage in the Western Mediterranean. During November and December, only two systems formed. Cassilda, which became the third medicane of the season, formed on November 6 in the Tyrrhenian Sea, reaching winds of about 50 mph while it traversed Sicily and Malta. Cassilda then moved south of Greece, where it became a strong medicane, with winds of 70 mph. Cassilda struck Crete at peak intensity, causing heavy damage. In December, Medistorm David developed in the Black Sea, striking just east of Odessa, Ukraine as a weak medistorm. In the next half of the season, 9 storms developed. In January, 3 of those storms formed. On January 16, Medistorm Elaina formed just north of Algeria, making landfall in Tunisia the next day with 35 mph winds. On January 24, Medistorm Falchion developed in the Strait of Gibraltar, moving slowly to the north-northeast, which resulted in major flooding in the Balearic Islands and France. On January 31, Medistorm Gloria became a subtropical system over Malta, moving north. Medistorm Gloria rapidly intensified, ending up with winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Southeastern Italy. In February, two systems formed, Helios and Isabella. Helios formed on February 13, lasting until February 20 as it reached a peak intensity of 70 mph, looping around the Western Mediterranean. Isabella was a severe medistorm that reached winds of 40 mph as it traveled up Spain's eastern coast, making landfall in Catalonia with 35 mph winds. In March, one system formed, which was Medistorm Jon. Jon stayed out to sea in the Black Sea, where it reached peak winds of 35 mph, lasting 2 days before succumbing to cold SSTs. The final storm of the season was Medistorm Karissa, which formed on June 1 in the Central Mediterranean. Karissa lasted 4 days as it slowly moved through the Cyclades, and eventually made landfall in Turkey, where it dissipated on June 4. With Karissa's dissipation, the 2019-20 season ended with 15 named storms, 5 medicanes, and 1 major medicane. Systems 'Severe Medistorm Vito' The origins of Vito traced back to a tropical-like disturbance that developed over Spain, on August 19, which sped through the Balearic Islands by the 20th of August. This disturbance had no name associated with it from FUB, but it did earn the name Claudius by Daniele Bianchino on Altervista. By August 21, the system had fully enclosed its circulation, and thus was named Vito by the Mediterranean Cyclone Centre (MCC). Vito at its initial formation was 35 mph with a pressure of 1008 millibars. By Vito's next advisory, the system had begun to make its way toward Sardinia, where it made landfall with 35 mph winds late on August 21. Early on August 22, Vito exited the coast of Sardinia, and entered very favorable conditions in the Tyrrhenian Sea. Around this time, medistorm warnings had been issued from Civitavecchia to Follonica in Italy. These conditions allowed Vito to restrengthen, eventually reaching Severe Medistorm status midday on August 22. As the evening neared, Vito reached its peak intensity of 45 mph and a pressure of 1004 millibars. At 00:00 UTC August 23, Vito made landfall in Albinia, Italy with winds of 45 mph. Damage caused by Vito was relatively minor, however, there was one fatality in the country of San Marino. At 06:00 UTC, Vito had weakened back into a medistorm with 35 mph winds. Then, at 12:00 UTC August 23, Vito re-emerged over the Adriatic Sea, where it became a remnant low and dissipated. Overall, Vito caused very minimal damage and 1 fatality. 'Medicane Xylona' On September 7, an extratropical cyclone that swept across the Hudson Bay had entered the Northern Atlantic Ocean. This cyclone had reached a pressure of 943 millibars (27.85 inHg) as it approached the Azores, causing gale force winds and high waves. The cyclone had gotten caught in a strong ridge, caused by a high pressure system to the southwest, swinging the system into the Cantabrian Sea, much similar to Subtropical Storm Stephanie in the 2016-17 season. The system had encountered some moderate shear, allowing the center of the system to split from the front. Shortly after however, the system made landfall in France and had lost most of its structure. The system re-emerged over the Mediterranean on September 11, becoming Medistorm Xylona, with an intensity of 30 mph and 1006 millibars. Xylona slowly moved over the Balearic Islands, in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 34°C, allowing the system to quickly strengthen into a Severe Medistorm, with winds of 45 mph by the next advisory. The Mediterranean Cyclone Center had noted that the system was unexpectedly going through a rapid intensification stage, as they had previously predicted that dry air would intrude the system. As the system continued on its eastward trek, Xylona continued to rapidly intensify, becoming the first medicane of the season, with an intensity of 60 mph and 995 millibars as it was exiting the Balearic Islands, making its way to Sardinia. The Mediterranean Cyclone Center had predicted a fairly intense, direct hit on the island of Sardinia, which was expected to receive winds of at least hurricane force, according to the Mediterranean Cyclone Center. Around mid-day on September 12, the MCC upgraded Xylona into a major medicane, after having winds of 75 mph, just 50 miles off of the Sardinian coast. A special advisory was issued just before landfall in Sardinia, and the system further intensified with winds of 80 mph. At 14:15 UTC on September 12, Xylona made landfall just south of Oristano. Surprisingly, after passing over Sardinia, Xylona did not weaken as much as expected. Xylona remained a medicane as it exited the coast, still encountering favorable conditions. In the Tyrrhenian Sea, SSTs of 31°C were being recorded, along with low shear and little to no dry air. Before long, explosive intensification occurred. In the Tyrrhenian Sea, Xylona began to rapidly intensify, jumping back to major medicane status, with winds of 85 mph. At the 00:00 UTC advisory by the Mediterranean Cyclone Center, Xylona had even further strengthened into a 90 mph storm. It was also determined at this time that Xylona had transitioned from a subtropical cyclone, into a tropical cyclone. This transition in the basin has only been recorded a handful of times, and Xylona had performed it just about 150 miles east of Sardinia, as the system was making a turn to the east-northeast. Soon, it tied Medicane Euxeinos as the most intense medicane since Medicane Treboniano, with an intensity of 90 mph and 977 millibars. At 12:00 UTC on September 13, Xylona had become the first Catastrophic Medicane since Treboniano of the 1998-99 season. Xylona also had began a curve to the northeast, and then to the north. The MCC had forecasted a direct hit on the extreme southern tip of Italy as a Catastrophic Medicane. Suddenly, another pressure drop allowed Xylona to become the most intense medicane on record. At this time, Xylona hit its peak intensity of 105 mph and 968 millibars. Around 00:00 UTC on September 14, Xylona slightly weakened due to a bit of dry air intrusion. Almost simultaneously, a high pressure system to its south had steered the system away from Sicily, after almost making landfall on its northern tip. Xylona had then turned almost directly north at 06:00 UTC the same morning, weakening back into a major medicane with 90 mph winds. A pressure of 974 millibars was also recorded at this time, which was still considered extremely intense for the basin. Just a couple hours later, around 07:55 UTC on September 14, Xylona made landfall in Sapri, Italy. Due to the terrain of the region, Xylona quickly weakened. As Xylona re-emerged over the Adriatic Sea, Xylona weakened straight to a severe medistorm, due to the colder waters and higher shear in the region. At 12:00 UTC, Xylona had an intensity of only 50 mph and 988 millibars. After Xylona had rapidly weakened, it began to approach Croatia, where the MCC began to forecast a hit somewhere near Split in Croatia. At 16:00 UTC, Xylona made landfall in Smokvica Island with 45 mph winds. Shortly after, Xylona made another landfall in Hvar Island, followed by a third in Brac Island. The most notable of these landfalls was the final landfall in Omiš, Croatia, where Xylona eventually moved over and dissipated at 00:00 UTC on September 15. As a remnant low, Xylona ended up bringing a mix of snow, ice, and rain to much of Central and Eastern Europe. Overall, Xylona caused 110 fatalities and $4.05 billion (2019 USD) in damages. 'Medicane Yosef' On September 19, an extratropical cyclone developed from a trough over Tunisia, moving over the Mediterranean Sea on September 20. Moving eastward, the system began to lose its front, resulting in the development of a warm-core occlusion. On September 21, the system continued to strengthen due to increased baroclinic instability, while going through a hybrid transition. At 0:00 UTC on September 22, the system was designated as Medistorm Yosef by the Mediterranean Cyclone Centre (MCC). Over the course of the next few hours, Yosef's pressure steadily dropped. At 06:00 UTC, in the next advisory, Yosef had winds of 35 mph with a minimum pressure of 1000 millibars. By 12:00 UTC, however, Yosef had reached winds of 40 mph, becoming a severe medistorm. The minimum pressure at this time was 999 millibars, with wind gusts up to 50 mph in some areas. In Ierpapetra, Crete, a wind gust of 69 mph was recorded, and some minor wind damage to trees and buildings occurred. As the system moved slowly to the east-northeast, it continued to quickly strengthen. At 18:00 UTC on September 22, Yosef strengthened into a severe medistorm with sustained winds of 45 mph, with wind gusts up to 60 mph. Localized gusts at the time reached up to hurricane-force, especially in higher elevations in Crete. At 00:00 UTC on September 23, Yosef intensified into a storm with winds of 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 996 millibars. By 06:00 UTC, Yosef had become the second medicane of the season, south of Crete, with winds of 60 mph. The minimum pressure at this time was 993 millibars. The intensification quickly slowed at 12:00 UTC, due to high shear tearing the system apart. This caused the northeastern quadrant of the eye-like feature to collapse. This was still visible at peak, 18:00 UTC on September 23, with winds of 65 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 991 millibars. At peak intensity, Yosef made landfall in Karpathos Island in the Greek Cyclades. Yosef slowly moved directly over the entirety of the island for about 6 hours, causing heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding. An ancient stone church sustained severe water damage from the rainfall. Due to the rainfall, part of the village of Lefkos was destroyed by a mudslide, causing two fatalities. At 00:00 UTC September 24, Yosef was located over Saria Island, weakening due to interaction with mountains on Karpathos Island just hours earlier. Early in the morning on September 24, Yosef had weakened to a low-end severe medistorm, located in Steno Karpathou. Throughout September 24, Yosef weakened into a medistorm, moving mostly directly in between the islands of the Cyclades. Yosef made its final landfall in extreme Southwestern Turkey at 00:00 UTC on September 25, with winds of 25 mph. Just hours later, Yosef degenerated into a remnant low. Overall, two fatalities were reported and damages were estimated around $50 million (2019 USD) in damages. 'Medistorm Zenia' 'Medistorm Athena' 'Severe Medistorm Benjamin' 'Medicane Cassilda' 'Medistorm David' 'Medistorm Elaina' 'Severe Medistorm Falchion' 'Medicane Gloria' 'Medicane Helios' 'Severe Medistorm Isabella' 'Medistorm Jon' 'Medistorm Karissa' Storm names In October 2018, full naming lists for the Mediterranean were created, and when a season would end at a certain name, the next season would pick up on the next name. Due to the 2018-19 season ending on Trudy, the 2019-20 season started on Vito, and carried on into List II. 21 names are shown below, but only 15 were used. The other 6 were used in the next season. Retirement After the season, the names Xylona, Cassilda, and Falchion were retired after they were deemed too inappropriate to use after the destruction of these storms. They were replaced by Xaviera, Caitlin, and Ferris for future use in the basin. Season effects Category:Mediterranean seasons Category:TornadoGenius